The Daily Aggie :: 05/13/12 :: Aggie Baseball Seeding Scenarios

The 2012 WAC baseball regular season race comes to a close this week with six of the seven teams finishing up their final three game series. As usual it's been a wild and wacky race and as is nearly always the case, the tournament field is neither set nor has the regular season champion been determined. The WAC lead has been bounced around like a hot potato with nobody willing to take hold of it.

As a refresher the preseason coaches poll looked like this: 1) Fresno State, 2) San Jose State, 3) Hawai'i, T4) New Mexico State and Nevada, 6) Louisiana Tech, 7) Sacramento State.

As we head into the final weekend of play, Sacramento State is the leader in the clubhouse at 11-7 and will make their first WAC Tournament appearance since 2008. At 10-5 Nevada is the only team that controls their own destiny in terms of the regular season title. A series victory by the Wolf Pack over Hawai'i this week gives them the regular season title. Both New Mexico State and Hawai'i have seen their grasp on the regular season title slip through their fingers. The Aggies have lost 5-of-6 over the past two weeks to slip from first all the way into a tie for third with Hawai'i and the Warriors hold the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their series sweep. Likewise the Warriors saw their regular season title hopes take a massive hit as they were swept by Sacramento State and like the Aggies, fell from first to third.

At the bottom of the league sits San Jose State (5-10), Fresno State (6-9) and Louisiana Tech (6-9). The three teams will battle for the final two spots in the tournament with the winner of the Battle of the Bone (Louisiana Tech at Fresno State) securing one of those two spots. The loser could still make the tournament but their fate will also be determined by what happens in the New Mexico State vs. San Jose State series.

So the final three series in conference play look like this:

Nevada (10-5) vs. Hawai'i (8-7)
San Jose State (5-10) vs. New Mexico State (8-7)
Fresno State (6-9) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-9)

For the Aggies to win a share of the regular season title they will need to sweep San Jose State and have Hawai'i take at least two of three from Nevada.

Here are our projected seedings based on the Aggies' potential record in the final series.

3-0:
1-seed if Hawai'i takes 2-of-3 from Nevada (Aggies own best record between 3 teams tied for 1st at 4-2, Sacramento 3-3, Nevada 2-4)
2-seed if Nevada takes 2-of-3 from Hawai'i (Aggies own head-to-head with Sacramento State)
2-seed if Nevada sweeps Hawai'i (Aggies own head-to-head with Sacramento State)
3-seed if Hawai'i sweeps Nevada (Sacramento 4-2 record among tied teams, UH 3-3, NMSU 2-4)

2-1:
3-seed if either Nevada or Hawai'i sweeps the series (Aggies own head-to-head with Nevada)
4-seed if Hawai'i takes 2-of-3 from Nevada (Hawai'i owns head-to-head with Aggies)

1-2:
3-seed if Nevada sweeps Hawai'i AND Louisiana Tech wins series at Fresno State or Fresno State wins series but does not sweep.
4-seed if Nevada sweeps Hawai'i AND Fresno State sweeps Louisiana Tech (Fresno State owns head-to-head with Aggies)
4-seed if Nevada takes 2-of-3 from Hawai'i and Louisiana Tech wins series or Fresno State wins series but does not sweep. (Hawai'i owns head-to-head with Aggies)
5-seed if Nevada takes 2-of-3 from Hawai'i and Fresno State sweeps Louisiana Tech. (UH, FS, NMSU all finish 9-9, Aggies 1-5 against teams tied, UH 5-1--3-seed, FS 4-2--4-seed)

0-3:
5-seed if Nevada sweeps Hawai'i AND Louisiana Tech wins their series but does not sweep (Fresno State is out).
6-seed if Nevada sweeps Hawai'i AND Louisiana Tech or Fresno State sweeps their series (loser of FS/LTU series is out)
6-seed if Nevada sweeps Hawai'i AND Fresno State wins series vs. Louisiana Tech (LA Tech is out)

Group tiebreakers if these three teams finish tied (record against each other)
NMSU: 2-4
Sacramento St.: 4-2
Hawai'i: 3-3

Group tiebreakers if these three teams finish tied (record against each other)
Hawai'i: 4-2
NMSU: 3-3
LA Tech: 2-4

Group tiebreakers if these three teams finish tied (record against each other)
Hawai'i: 5-1
Fresno St.: 4-2
NMSU: 1-5